Astrana Health, Inc. (NASDAQ:ASTH) defied analyst predictions to release its third-quarter results, which were ahead of market expectations. Results were good overall, with revenues beating analyst predictions by 3.5% to hit US$479m. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in at US$0.33, some 3.8% above whatthe analysts had expected. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

View our latest analysis for Astrana Health

Following the latest results, Astrana Health's ten analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$2.50b in 2025. This would be a sizeable 45% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to climb 19% to US$1.55. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$2.29b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.63 in 2025. So it's pretty clear consensus is mixed on Astrana Health after the latest results; whilethe analysts lifted revenue numbers, they also administered a small dip in per-share earnings expectations.

The consensus price target was unchanged at US$64.88, suggesting the business is performing roughly in line with expectations, despite some adjustments to profit and revenue forecasts. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Astrana Health, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$70.00 and the most bearish at US$55.00 per share. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's clear from the latest estimates that Astrana Health's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 35% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 23% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 6.7% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Astrana Health is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting them to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$64.88, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Astrana Health. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Astrana Health going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Astrana Health you should know about.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.