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The Republican presidential election win is moving financial markets to discount significant gains in the U.S. dollar and rises in the longer dated U.S. dollar bond yields, said Jonathan F. Garner, chief strategist for Asia and the Emerging Markets at Morgan Stanley, in a note.
Due to this, he reiterates his preference of Japan (EWJ) – rated overweight – and his view of underweight China (MCHI), (FXI), (GXC).
He also said Australia (EWA), (FLAU) and India (INDA), (PIN), (FLIN) are set to benefit.
Garner said that with the U.S. dollar/Japanese yen (USD:JPY) up 1.84% to 154, yen weakness “is a positive factor for Japan equities (EWJ) given a materially higher sector weight to exporters than for China (MCHI) or EM (EEM) overall.”
China (MCHI) has weakened to 7.17, “and the policy proposals from the Republican side for materially higher tariffs on China versus other geographies are likely a negative from a growth perspective.”
The National People's Congress of the People's Republic of China’s standing committee is set to end on Nov. 8, and additional stimulus policies may be announced.
“Magnitude and speed are key to watch, and bear in mind, the tariff headwind could discount the net-net effect of the potential reflation measures.”
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