Investors in trivago N.V. (NASDAQ:TRVG) had a good week, as its shares rose 3.3% to close at US$1.71 following the release of its third-quarter results. Revenues fell 6.0% short of expectations, at €146m. Earnings correspondingly dipped, with trivago reporting a statutory loss of €0.04 per share, whereas the analysts had previously modelled a profit in this period. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on trivago after the latest results.

View our latest analysis for trivago

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from trivago's eight analysts is for revenues of €489.0m in 2025. This reflects a modest 6.8% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 86% to €0.053. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of €501.5m and €0.027 per share in losses. While next year's revenue estimates dropped there was also a very substantial increase in loss per share expectations, suggesting the consensus has a bit of a mixed view on the stock.

The consensus price target fell 8.4% to US$2.31, with the analysts clearly concerned about the company following the weaker revenue and earnings outlook. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on trivago, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$3.02 and the most bearish at US$1.95 per share. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await trivago shareholders.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. One thing stands out from these estimates, which is that trivago is forecast to grow faster in the future than it has in the past, with revenues expected to display 5.4% annualised growth until the end of 2025. If achieved, this would be a much better result than the 5.4% annual decline over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 11% per year. So although trivago's revenue growth is expected to improve, it is still expected to grow slower than the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of trivago's future valuation.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for trivago going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.