$Vornado Realty Trust(VNO-N)$ VNO is scheduled to report third-quarter 2024 results on Nov. 4, after market close. The quarterly results are likely to reflect a year-over-year decrease in revenues and funds from operations (FFO) per share.

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In the last reported quarter, this New York-based real estate investment trust’s (REIT) FFO plus assumed conversions as adjusted per share of 57 cents outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3.6%. Results displayed better-than-anticipated top-line growth.

Over the trailing four quarters, Vornado’s FFO plus assumed conversions as adjusted per share surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate on two occasions, met on another and missed on the remaining period, the average surprise being 1.3%. This is depicted in the graph below:

Vornado Realty Trust Price and EPS Surprise

Vornado Realty Trust price-eps-surprise | Vornado Realty Trust Quote

U.S. Office Market in Q3

Per a Cushman & Wakefield CWK report, although the overall net absorption was negative in the third quarter, certain markets registered improved absorption. U.S. office vacancy rate grew in the quarter, marking the 10th straight quarter of increasing vacancy.

Overall net absorption was negative 18.5 million square feet (msf) for the third quarter, further declining from the negative 13.9 msf recorded in the previous quarter. The nation reported a cumulative total of negative 293.7 msf since the beginning of the pandemic.

The Cushman & Wakefield report highlights that despite the weaker trends at the national level, demand for U.S. office spaces outperformed in some markets.

More than half of the U.S. office markets reported improved absorption figures in the third quarter compared to the prior year quarter, and a similar number of markets experienced quarter-over-quarter absorption growth. In the third quarter of 2024, 27 markets recorded positive absorption.

In addition, occupiers’ growing preference for high-quality office buildings has played a key role in leading to positive net absorption rates in these markets. Further, the occupancy of these assets in six gateway markets was approximately 800 basis points (bps), higher than the overall office average.

Nonetheless, the third-quarter national vacancy rate reached a record high of 20.9%, increasing 55 bps sequentially and 190 bps year over year. The national asking rent increased to $38.15 in the third quarter from $37.68 in the previous quarter.

Factors to Consider Ahead of VNO’s Results

Although Vornado has a portfolio of premium office assets strategically situated in a few select high-rent, high-barrier-to-entry markets of New York, Chicago and San Francisco, its performance in the to-be-reported quarter is likely to have been affected by the choppy environment in the office real estate market.

Also, competition from developers, owners and operators of office properties and other commercial real estate, including sublease space available from its tenants, might have partly limited VNO’s ability to increase rents and/or backfill tenant move-outs and vacancies during the quarter.

VNO’s Projections

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $440.7 million, suggesting a decrease of 2.3% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.

The consensus mark for Vornado’s New York revenues stands at $357.3 million, indicating a decline from $364.8 million in the prior-year quarter. The consensus mark for other revenues is pegged at $81.6 million, down from $86.2 million reported in the prior-year quarter.

The consensus estimate for occupancy in the New York office portfolio is pegged at 88.61%, down from 91.60% reported a year ago.

Further, high interest expenses are expected to have been a spoilsport during the to-be-reported quarter.

The company’s activities during the to-be-reported quarter were inadequate to garner analysts’ confidence. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarterly FFO per share remained unchanged at 51 cents over the past month. The figure also suggests a 22.7% decline from the prior-year period’s reported number.

What Our Quantitative Model Predicts

Our proven model does not conclusively predict a surprise in terms of FFO per share for Vornado this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an FFO beat, which is not the case here.

Vornado has an Earnings ESP of -3.16% and currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are two stocks from the broader REIT sector — Ryman Hospitality Properties RHP and AvalonBay Communities AVB — that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to report a surprise this quarter.

Ryman Hospitality Properties, slated to release quarterly numbers on Nov. 4, has an Earnings ESP of +1.23% and carries a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.

AvalonBay Communities, scheduled to report quarterly numbers on Nov. 4, has an Earnings ESP of +0.72% and carries a Zacks Rank of 2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Note: Anything related to earnings presented in this write-up represents funds from operations (FFO), a widely used metric to gauge the performance of REITs.

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