As you might know, AerCap Holdings N.V. (NYSE:AER) recently reported its quarterly numbers. Revenues were in line with forecasts, at US$1.9b, although statutory earnings per share came in 11% below what the analysts expected, at US$1.95 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on AerCap Holdings after the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for AerCap Holdings

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from AerCap Holdings' seven analysts is for revenues of US$8.11b in 2025. This reflects a reasonable 3.8% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to tumble 24% to US$10.37 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$8.07b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$10.28 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of US$112, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic AerCap Holdings analyst has a price target of US$130 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$103. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting AerCap Holdings is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that AerCap Holdings' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 3.0% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 13% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 5.4% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than AerCap Holdings.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on AerCap Holdings. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for AerCap Holdings going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with AerCap Holdings (at least 2 which don't sit too well with us) , and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.