It's been a good week for LPL Financial Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:LPLA) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest third-quarter results, and the shares gained 7.6% to US$281. It was a workmanlike result, with revenues of US$3.1b coming in 2.2% ahead of expectations, and statutory earnings per share of US$3.39, in line with analyst appraisals. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

View our latest analysis for LPL Financial Holdings

After the latest results, the eleven analysts covering LPL Financial Holdings are now predicting revenues of US$13.7b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a decent 19% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to swell 18% to US$15.88. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$13.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$15.76 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

With the analysts reconfirming their revenue and earnings forecasts, it's surprising to see that the price target rose 7.6% to US$303. It looks as though they previously had some doubts over whether the business would live up to their expectations. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values LPL Financial Holdings at US$338 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$245. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await LPL Financial Holdings shareholders.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the LPL Financial Holdings' past performance and to peers in the same industry. The period to the end of 2025 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 15% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 16% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 6.0% annually. So although LPL Financial Holdings is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for LPL Financial Holdings going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You still need to take note of risks, for example - LPL Financial Holdings has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.