BlackRock’s Fink Says Market Is Wrong on Fed Rate-Cut Bets

Bloomberg
01 Oct 2024

BlackRock Inc. Chief Executive Officer Larry Fink said the market is pricing too many interest-rate cuts from the Federal Reserve given the US economy continues to grow.

“I don’t see any landing,” Fink told Bloomberg Television’s Francine Lacqua in an interview Tuesday on the sidelines of the Berlin Global Dialogue 2024 conference. “The amount of easing that’s in the forward curve is crazy. I do believe there’s room for easing more, but not as much as the forward curve would indicate.”

Money markets imply a one-in-three chance the Fed will deliver another half-point cut in November, and price a total of about 190 basis points of easing by the end of next year. But Fink said it’s hard for him to see that materializing, as most government policies at the moment are more inflationary than deflationary. 

The Fed lowered borrowing costs by a half percentage point in September, the first reduction since 2020 and a larger-than-usual move. Since then, traders and analysts have been debating how policymakers will approach the size and pace of easing in coming months. 

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Monday the central bank will lower interest rates “over time” and emphasized that the overall US economy remains on solid footing. He also reiterated his confidence that inflation will continue moving toward the 2% target.

Infrastructure Investment

Fink sees enough capital in the private sector to fund investments in infrastructure, which is a major component to help stimulate economic growth. BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager with about $10.6 trillion in assets as of June, has been pushing aggressively into infrastructure financing as it also grows the lucrative asset class of private markets.

“There is enough capital in the private sector that we will be able to fund these new projects and so to me this is the dawning of the new reality that we’re going to see broadening of public and private investment in infrastructure,” he said.

As the economy expands, Fink said corporate earnings will do well and despite assets valuations and some geopolitical issues, the market isn’t facing any real systemic risk. He said US elections seldom make a major impact on assets despite all the noise from the media and pundits around the topic.

“We see repeatedly every year, every four years, when we have an election, everyone says that it’s going to have a dramatic change in the market, and over time it doesn’t,” Fink said. “I would argue today that because of the expansion of the global capital markets, we’re diffusing more risk than ever,” he added.

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