Nothing quite shines like gold: just ask investors of Eldorado Gold Corp (EGO). Based in Vancouver, B.C., the gold production and exploration firm owns and operates precious metal mines in Turkey and Brazil. Last year, the company posted sales of just over $1 billion, up almost 16% from the previous year. As well, net income landed at $104.6 million, up around 130%.
However, the biggest catalyst is the upward trajectory of gold. Certainly, the fear trade has offered a cynical tailwind for the precious metals complex. Thanks to a variety of factors — particularly macroeconomic concerns, geopolitical anxieties and inflationary pressures — the yellow metal has enjoyed a wealth of positive catalysts. As such, EGO stock has tagged along for the ride.
Other elements have helped gin up sentiment. Notably, the Barchart Technical Opinion indicator rates EGO stock as a 100% Buy. It’s more than likely based on the amalgamation of technical considerations that Eldorado shares will maintain its upward trajectory in the near term. Further, analysts overall view EGO as a consensus Moderate Buy: the assessment breaks down as four Strong Buys, two Moderate Buys, four Holds and one Moderate Sell.
Despite the many encouraging signals, investors naturally have concerns about holding the bag. After such a big runup in EGO stock — it’s more than doubled in the past 52 weeks — newcomers to the opportunity may wonder if there’s any gas left in the tank.
Well, according to Barchart Screeners, there is.
One of my favorite technical signals is the J-Pattern, also known as the J-Hook. Unlike other extractions from the discipline of technical analysis, the J-Hook doesn’t feel like a Rorschach test. If you see the hallmark “J” in the charts, you may be staring at a compelling trading opportunity. Even better, this methodology can be objectively tracked and identified.
Primarily, the J-Hook is a continuation pattern. Following an initial upswing, a minor correction or consolidation materializes. The bullish technical signal is confirmed when the target asset moves above the peak price of the initial rally. Here’s how this looks for EGO stock:
Now, how much higher is anyone’s guess: I’m afraid the J-Hook is not an exact science. Probably, scientists will freak out if I even allude to the “J” as anything resembling science. Nevertheless, the hypothesis is that the confirming breakout in the third cycle suggests that bullish volume has increased. So, the pressure if you will favors the long side of the trade.
Now, by logical deduction, my belief is that $20 is the target for this J-Hook rally. It’s a nice, clean round number. Plus, at a closing price of $18.48 on Thursday, EGO stock is right there. I think the bulls would find it a shame if the gold miner didn’t reach the target.
If you’re going to deploy options here, there may be two ways to play this game. Broadly, the implied volatility of EGO stock for the options chain expiring Oct. 18 was 35.88%. That’s modest compared to the historical volatility of 33.92%. To me, that calls for a debit strategy.
Looking at the bull call spreads, I’m not liking the very modest short call income for the second leg of the trade. Given that EGO stock pinged as a J-Hook, for the October calls, I think a straight call option may be appropriate. For one possible idea, consider the $18 call, which carried a premium of $1. That means EGO would only need to move up to $19 to break even, which is well within reason.
Another strategy is to consider a bull call spread but for the Nov. 15 expiration date. In particular, the following trade appears enticing:
To extract the full benefit of this trade, EGO stock simply needs to be at $19 or higher by the expiration date. That seems like a very reasonable proposition given the technical momentum and the fundamental backdrop.
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