Dollar and Nikkei Futures Slide as Ishiba Set to Become Next Japan Prime Minister

Dow Jones
27 Sep 2024

Japan’s ruling party on Friday picked former defense minister Shigeru Ishiba as leader. He will become prime minister next week.

The party leadership win is a ticket to the top job because the Liberal Democratic Party’s ruling coalition currently controls the parliament.

The dollar USDJPY tumbled vs. the Japanese yen after Ishiba’s surprise victory, as did Nikkei 225 futures NIY00 .

His rival, Sanae Takaichi, was seen as opposing higher interest rates.

A record nine candidates, including two women, ran in a vote decided by the party’s lawmakers and grassroots members.

The current prime minister, Fumio Kishida, has been dogged by party corruption scandals, and the LDP is looking for a fresh leader in hopes of regaining public trust before a looming general election.

The vote is limited to LDP members of parliament and about 1 million dues-paying party members. That’s only 1% of the country’s eligible voters.

Past votes were often determined by the party’s powerful faction leaders, but that may change this time because all but one of the six factions has announced their dissolution following the corruption scandals.

There’s widespread worry among experts that the removal of faction support from whoever wins could mean Japan will return to an era similar to the early 2000s, which saw “revolving door” leadership changes and political instability.

On Tuesday, Kishida and his Cabinet ministers will resign. The new leader, after being formally elected in a parliamentary vote, will then form a new Cabinet later in the day.

The main opposition — the liberal-leaning Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan — has struggled to build momentum, despite the LDP scandals. But experts say its newly elected leader, centrist former Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda, is pushing a conservative shift for the party, could trigger a broader political regroupings.

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